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| Activity title | Assessing the value of cyber operations in military operations | Activity Reference | SAS-167 | Panel | SAS | Security Classification | Other | Status | Active | Activity type | RTG | Start date | 2020-11-17T00:00:00Z | End date | 2024-11-30T00:00:00Z | Keywords | analytical approach, balance of investment, capability based planning, cost benefit analysis, Cyber operations, integration of cyber operations, space of options, utility and risk assessment | Background | Both nation states and non-state actors are increasingly using cyber-related means to support their interests worldwide. This includes military conflict, where the inclusion of cyber operations has become more prevalent. The public discourse is increasingly open about cyber operations and how different nations use their capabilities. However, the advantages and disadvantages of using different types of cyber-related means in different situations are less understood. This is partially a result of the ongoing rapid development of cyber capabilities, as well as a lack of a rigorous analytical framework to analyse the possibilities and implications of cyber operations in a given context. Exploring and developing approaches to support analyses in this area is a way to address some of these knowledge shortfalls. | Objectives | The overall objective is to improve the ability of NATO, NATO nations and partners to employ cyber operations (COs) in a military context. This will be done by developing analytical approaches to:
1. Assess the use of different kinds of cyber operations in contributing to military objectives and the desired end state, in various missions and strategic contexts. This may include own cyber operations as well as adversary cyber operations. The assessment will include identifying factors to consider and how to take them into account. Factors may include:
a. The strategic context
b. The military objectives and end state
c. The utility of various cyber operations
d. The space of options, including comparison with non-cyber options
e. Risks, including collateral damage / unintended effects, probability of success and risk of escalation
f. Constraints and restraints, including political, ethical and legal guidance (e.g., RoEs); available resources, time
2. Inform cost-benefit analyses at the strategic level (balance of investment) when allocating funds for capability development across defence capabilities. This may include:
a. prioritizing between different cyber capabilities
b. prioritizing between cyber capabilities and other capabilities
3. Foster the integration of cyber capabilities into joint, national or multinational military operations. This may include:
a. identifying friction points
b. assessing synergy and interdependencies between different means
c. suggesting elements to consider in integration
Items out of scope for the proposed research activity include: analysis of Communication and Information System (CIS) operations (management of national or NATO systems), analysis of the legal context applying to cyber operations, as well as adversary cyber operations against non-dual use civilian systems, are considered out of scope. | Topics | Current literature on the analysis of the possibilities and implications of cyber operations in a military context is sparse. Analytical approaches may include, but are not limited to, methods, models, frameworks, checklists, best practices, war games, lessons identified, overviews of factors to consider, taxonomies, visualization aids, lines of reasoning, experimentation and simulation, morphological analysis. | | Contact Panel Office |
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